2024/01/01 Noto Peninsula Earthquake M7.6 prediction information verification

１．Prediction Information previouly anounced

Earthquake occurrence prediction
Prediction No	Announce Date	Basis Image	Time	Place	Scale(M)
P2312- 04	12/26	Ionospheric perturbation Kushiro Ionospheric perturbation Sapporo Ionospheric perturbation Sendai	by 1/2	Tohoku District south ~ Chiba Pref.	more than M6
P2312−04- 2	12/26	Tree Bioelectric Potential Weekly Yachimata Tree Bioelectric Potential Monthly Yachimata	In the weekly data, a protrusion- like abnormality has been appearing in Tree- 2 every day since December 22nd. In the monthly data, the fluctuations in Tree- 1 and Tree- 2 have suddenly increased since December 22nd.

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- Based on the following abnormalities, we predicted that a large earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher would occur within one week. The location of the occurrence is from the anomaly in Yachimata, Chiba Prefecture.
We determined that it is from the southern Tohoku region to Chiba prefecture.
　　- Terminator Time (hereinafter referred to as TT) in the evening of December 25th is synchronized from Kushiro,
      Sapporo, Sendai, Matsue to Sagamihara Path, and σ exceeds +2.
　　- The morning TT on December 25th was synchronized with the path from Kushiro, Sapporo, Sendai, and Matsue to
      Sagamihara, and σ was approximately +2<br> Details are described in paragraphs 4 and 5 below.

◎Regarding ionospheric perturbation observation - > Here 
　Paper by Professor Emeritus Hayakawa of Electric Communication University - > Here

2. Seismic intensity distribution announced by the Japan Meteorological Agency - > Here

３．News Paper Article - > Here （Japanese)
News Paper Yomiuri Shimbun research
As of February 22,  241 people were died, 0 people were missing, 7,097 people are evacuating and 75,176 houses were collapseed
As of January 31,  238 people were died, 19 people were missing, 9,557 people are evacuating and 46,283 houses were collapseed
As of January 17,  232 people were died, 21 people were missing, 15,283 people are evacuating and 22,484 houses were collapseed
As of January 13,  220 people were died, 26 people were missing, 20,797 people are evacuating and 11,286 houses were collapseed
As of January 12,  215 people were died, 28 people were missing, 22,373 people are evacuating and 4,254 houses were collapseed
As of January 11,  213 people were died, 37 people were missing, 24,038 people are evacuating and 1,918 houses were collapseed
As of January 10,  206 people were died, 53 people were missing, 26,036 people are evacuating and 1,814 houses were collapseed
As of January 9,  202 people were died, 103 people were missing, 26,182 people are evacuating and 1,414 houses were collapseed
As of January 8,  168 people were died, 324 people were missing, 28,160 people are evacuating and 1,390 houses were collapseed
As of January 7,  128 people were died, 196 people were missing, evacuated people are unknown and 1,359 houses were collapseed
As of January 6,  126 people have died, 210 people are missing, evacuated people are unknown and collapseed houses are unknown
As of January 5,  94 people have died, 222 people are missing, evacuated people are unknown and collapseed houses are unknown

News Paper Sankei Shimbun research (2024/01/08)
This is the third major earthquake to occur near the Noto Peninsula in the past 10,000 years (Analysis by the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology)

4. Each Transmission Station - > Sagamihara Propagation route - > Here

5. Each Transmission Station - > Sagamihara Anomary 7 days before the EQ - > Here

6. Each Transmission Station - > Sagamihara Anomary 6 hours before the EQ - > Here

7. Problems to be solved
(1) Identifying the location of earthquake occurrence
　　- It is known that in the case of a large earthquake of magnitude 6 or greater,
       ionospheric perturbation will occur that covers all of Japan.
       Therefore, if we observe ionospheric perturbation that cover the whole of Japan,
       we can conclude that a major earthquake of M6 or greater will occur somewhere in Japan within a week.

　　- It is extremely difficult to pinpoint the location of the earthquake as the abnormal observation range is vast.

　　- Information on identifying the location of earthquakes in other organizations in Japan
　　　　　- Only the DuMA Co. Ltd. (underground weather map) predicted about 10 locations of earthquakes
　           including Noto Peninsula as long term prediction.
             Therefore, it cannot be said that one location near the Noto Peninsula can be identified.

　　　The following four organizations had not predicted the Noto EQ at all.
　　　　　- JESEA Co. Ltd.（Japan Earthquake Science Exploration Agency）
　　　　　- WEEKLY Earthquake Forecast Co. Ltd.
　　　　　- General Corporation Earthquake forecast
　　　　　- Earthquake Analysis Lab Co. Ltd.

　　- It can be said that there is currently no method that can narrow down the location of a major earthquake to one location.

　　-I would like to find a method that can narrow down predictions to one location as the location
     where a huge earthquake will occur in the future.

　　　　　- The fact that there have been many M=5 class earthquakes in the Noto area for several years may provide a hint.

(2) AM wave reception raw data is not clear
　　- The cause is thought to be low received field strength.
    - The solution is to increase the received detection output
    - In order to increase the received detection output, it is necessary to increase the received electric field strength.
    - To increase the receiving field strength, a waterproof direct receiving antenna is required outdoors without a case etc.
　　- Requires extensive experimentation